Oil Pressure

I couldn’t help but notice last time I was filling up Commodore One (that’s right, I still pump my own gas… for now) that it cost nearly twice as much as it used to. Back in the day, a full tank would set me back $40 or so – and lately, nearly $85. Now, I’m not going to lie and say that it doesn’t hurt, because clearly it does – but I’m sick to death of hearing the whole country whine about it constantly. The rising fuel prices reflect some harsh realities that we all need to acknowledge, beginning with the obvious: this trend is not temporary.

For starters, the increase in prices reflects (the only) real cost to us citizens of the war in Iraq. Unless you’re deployed there (or were until yesterday), or know someone who is, the war is an abstract concept. The odd 30 second snippet gets on TV every now and then, but otherwise it bears no direct effect on any of us. Let’s face it – Iraq is a long way away. Unfortunately, the fighting there (and flow down regional instability) is the driving force behind rising crude prices… up from about $40 a barrel in 2001 – to $127 this week (and expected to reach $200 in 2009). Hopefully you don’t need me to pencil in the connection between crude oil prices and petrol costs (hopefully). Henceforth then, let your $85 tank remind you of the consequences of a hastily planned and poorly executed war.

More broadly though, the clamor for oil and petrol are representative of a problem more permanent than war: our supplies are definitionally finite. Delirious with our own oil driven technology, demand has grown substantially in a few short decades – Australia consumed 350,000 barrels/day in 1965, and in 2005, 884,000 (note that our consumption is dwarfed by US, China… well almost everyone). Meanwhile, supplies generally remain fixed. Sure, new fields are occasionally discovered, upgraded or invaded – but with demand how it is, the impact is minor. At current consumption, Saudi Arabia will be out of oil in about 80 years, and Canada (which produces at 1/3 the speed) will be oil-free in 150. Clearly, demand is not expected to flatten out overnight, so these projections are overly generous. The bottom line: if you eat your greens and exercise regularly, you could well see an oil-free earth in your lifetime.

If you aren’t scared by that prospect, you should be. The frustrating thing is that the current leadership paralysis means that solutions are not being explored. There is no over-reaching governmental push for smaller, more efficient cars; for bio-fuel; or more generally for innovation in this area. At present, the collective us are sitting on our hands, wasting valuable time scoring political cheap shots. Meanwhile, the Swedes – as is their penchant – are striding boldly (and logically) forward, vowing oil independence by 2020 (by cutting consumption, increasing efficiency, and exploring alternatives).

For my part (aside from pursuing the Presidency), I’m selling Commodore One and resorting to public transport. Sure, our Costa-tarnished trains are out-dated, crowded and don’t run on time – but I feel like it’s the least I can do. Aside from whining, what are you going to do?