The Tide of Opinion

There’s a clear difference between not reacting to opinion polls, and well, not reacting at all. It’s a difference that’s being exemplified at the moment by our government as they dig their heels in and insist on ‘staying the course’ – while the public turn away from them in droves.

Opinion polls are fundamentally flawed, and ultimately a load of crap. Randomly calling a few thousand people (or more usually a few hundred) can never adequately represent the true trends in public feeling. Converting a sample size of say 400 people to a percentage that you can punch up a news report with is misleading to say the least, and most of us are aware that the quoted numbers are meaningless. As the saying goes, 83% of all statistics are made up. Politicians in particular have become immune to these polls, and rightly so. If policy was redirected every time a few hundred people indicated a lack of popularity, our democracy would fall in on itself.

Still, this phenomenon is distinct from becoming so insular from poll numbers that you lose touch with the true feelings of the majority of your people. On two key issues, the Liberals are steadfastly clinging to their policy ship, even as it strikes a glacier and begins to sink: the war in Iraq and David Hicks.

The jury has long been back on Iraq. It was ill-conceived, has been mismanaged and recently the intelligence convincing us to fight was deemed ‘inappropriate’. At the same time there has been (and remains) a need not to abandon the country, seeing as though it’s in a far worse state than when we found it. Unfortunately, open discussion about our options is being hidden behind a blind commitment not to ‘cut and run’. Howard’s recent comments have shown that his views on the matter are painfully one-dimensional. Meanwhile, the people, not only in our country but across the world, are war weary and a growing majority want and end to be in sight. Most will accept that there is no quick or painless exit from Iraq, but by the same token our commitment cannot be open-ended. Howard’s decision to send additional Australian Troops and trainers, coupled with his refusal to discuss their homecoming – until we ‘win’– shows a glaring gap between our government and their citizens.

The Deputy PM isn’t helping. He went out of his way yesterday to remind us that David Hicks wasn’t an innocent backpacker accidentally captured while holidaying in Afghanistan – and implied that he deserved his current predicament. Few people are claiming that he is totally innocent, though it would be nice for Mr Costello to show some empathy. Hick was found with the Taliban, in Afghanistan at very much the wrong time, as far as the US was concerned. The obvious problem is that we don’t really know any of the truth behind Hicks’ case and that the only information we have is from the media. The one thing that is certain is that he has been denied almost every basic human right, and certainly all of his legal rights. He has been held without trial and without a shred of compassion. We expect better treatment for our citizens. Australians have grown tired of our Government ignoring his plight, and ignoring us as well.

Luckily, there is one set of numbers that will change the government policy in these areas: election results. Come time to vote, the Liberals are going to suffer from their stubborn refusal to adapt their policies to reflect the will of the people. Meanwhile, Kevin Rudd’s current popularity is tied to the perception that he is listening – something that he would do well to continue.

2008 Update - Floundering Candidates

Though the starters gun for the 2008 American Presidential Election remains in its holster several of the candidates are already showing vulnerabilities at the blocks. The Republicans in particular are finding that while the field is wide, it lacks the quality that will facilitate a smooth transition of power from Bush to a GOP successor. Of the three leading hopefuls: John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney – all are struggling to find their niche, while other lesser known candidates (Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, Mike Huckabee et al.) are already rocketing towards obscurity.

A few months ago, McCain was a clear leader (Giuliani now leads narrowly). His experience as a senator, his strong military credentials and reputation for integrity all stood him in good stead with voters. Come troop surge time though, McCain criticised Bush for not suggesting enough troops – and he has quickly fallen out of step with public opinion. The war is very much out of fashion, and McCain is pushing to escalate it. This week, in an attempt to bolster conservative support, he has announced his opposition to Roe vs. Wade, the land mark pro-choice decision legalising abortion. He as vowed to overturn it, alienating him from democrat voters and moderates across the country.

Still, at least he has a position, which puts him ahead of Giuliani, who is trying to stake out dual views on abortion, gay marriage and gun control – pet conservative acid tests. He’s said he hates abortion, but believes in a woman’s right to choose; shared an apartment with a gay couple, but opposes their marriage and has legislated against gun ownership while talking up the second amendment. He’s not shying away from this perception: "You never agree with any one candidate 100%. I don't agree with myself 100%" – but he should know that electorates hate a flip-flopper, just ask John Kerry. Romney is having trouble reconciling his Mormon status with mainstream Americans and evangelical Republicans, but is trying by abandoning liberal attitudes he displayed while governor of Massachusetts.

The Democrats, for their part seem to be in a one horse race. Hillary leads by the length of the straight, and it seems that she is certain to get the party’s nomination. Considering the disarray within the Republican Party, you’d think she was as good as back in the White House. The US race is funny though – leading by a country mile is the worst place to be, especially this far from the finish. It makes you a big target. Aside from a reputation for being cold and calculating, Hillary is this week stamping out allegations of misusing campaign funds to by support from black leaders. With everyone watching every move she makes, it will no doubt be the first of many accusations. No one likes a tall poppy, and if I was Barack Obama, I’d be thinking that distant second is a fine place to be (especially considering John Edwards is next 'best').

The first Primary (which signals the start of the nomination process) is not until January 14, 2008 (in Iowa), but in the meantime all of the candidates need to chart a course away from the war, find a position that pleases their base without appearing to be extremist and above all show that they will be nothing like Bush. Seeing as though a single slip up in an interview or on the stump can derail an entire campaign, it promises to be a turbulent 11 months. My money for the moment is still firmly on Obama, but not quite the whole house yet.

Colbert Nails Howard

Popular 'secular progressive' Stephen Colbert hosts an hilarious news report in the US on Comedy Central, called the Colbert Report (pronounced with soft t's). Its a satire of hard-core republican conservatism and is consistently side-splitting. I highly recommend it to the citizens of our future republic. Recently, he took aim at John Howard - an insight into how the Americans are feeling about his recent Barack Obama-bashing outburst.

(Note: the original short clip was taken down from youtube, and has now been replaced by the full 5 minute segment. The Howard rant starts at about 2.55. Blame the copyrighters)

Green going mainstream

The ad below serves as an example of what I was talking about the other day: Tree-hugging, barefoots are out - a new generation of greenie is ready to come to the fore. Greenpeace, an organisation known for recruiting long haired soap dodgers are going mainstream, and if ads like this are any indication - they just might be successful.

Cowboy Diplomacy

I bet the Honourable PM has spent the last week or so wishing for a silver DeLorean, fitted with a flux capacitor – and maybe Michael J. Fox to drive him back in time with it – back to the golden days of introducing the GST. Still, I’m guessing that even if that wish came true, Fox wouldn’t stop if he saw him crossing the road – considering his Democratic affiliations and the PM’s new found love for mouthing potential Presidential candidates.

For context, it’s been a bumpy ride for the usually unshakable PM ever since Kevin Rudd took the reigns of the Opposition. His latest ramblings on climate change have been particularly uncharacteristic and incoherent and he’s had a lot of explaining to do. Even the PM’s fall-back ‘strong economy, low interest rates’ spiel is starting to look a bit strained and by all accounts has got the look of a man running scared. It’s been a rapid decline for our second-longest serving PM – started in part by own unpopular policies and accelerated by the surprising charisma of Rudd. Overnight, stock in John Howard Inc fell even further after an embarrassing attack on Democratic Presidential hopeful (and friend of this Administration) Barack Obama that drew outcries from around the globe.

When asked about Obama’s plan for American troop reductions in Iraq, Howard stated: “If I were running al-Qaeda in Iraq, I would put a circle around March 2008 and be praying as many times as possible for a victory, not only for Obama but also for the Democrats.” Yeah, he really said that. A win for the Democrats is a win for terrorism. Smooth. Not only is it a bad idea to meddle in the internal politics of an ally – but it sets a dangerous precedent for overtly using ‘the war on terror’ to win elections. Well, it's already happening to an extent (the Republicans infer stuff like this all the time) but rarely so blatantly. Howard has leapt right past inference and innuendo and straight to: Obama is a terrorist supporter.

Now, we need to tread carefully in the next couple of years and be very watchful that all of our civil rights don’t get tossed out the window. Already the spectre of Terrorism is used to justify a failing war in Iraq, exorbitant military spending and otherwise illegal detention without trial. If we allow it to so rampantly be used as a tool in trying to win elections, then Democracy will continue its march from reality to illusion. Now, as I’ve previously discussed, Barack Obama is a stand-up guy. A fresh face, with some big ideas. He may not suit everyone, but he’s audacious and he’s trying to make a difference. In short, he’s scaring old school politicians, just like Howard and Bush – because he makes them look foolish. Astutely, the Obama camp pointed out: “If Prime Minister Howard truly believes what he says, perhaps his country should find its way to contribute more than just 1,400 troops so some American troops can come home. It's easy to talk tough when it's not your country or your troops making the sacrifice.”

The point that alluding to Terrorism for the sake of politics is dangerous is easily made. Its just common sense. Making off the cuff statements like this can endanger our US-alliance, our reputation on the world stage – and hopefully the career of our big talking PM.

The Jury’s In – Climate Change is Real.

I’ve talked climate change previously and indicated that this Administration is serious about doing something about it (though by the time we sweep to power, it could be too late). The issue though is topical again, in light of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) meeting in Paris last week, Labor’s increasing pressure on our government in this area and the mainstream popularity of Al Gore’s movie ‘An Inconvenient Truth’.

The IPCC confirmed last week that “global warming was a reality, and that the burning of fossil fuels over the past 250 years, together with the destruction of tropical rainforests, was largely to blame for increases in atmospheric temperatures” If emissions of carbon dioxide continue at present rates, the panel says, the result will be rising sea levels, more powerful tropical storms and more intensive droughts in sub-tropical countries. That all sounds both familiar and dire. Such a meeting comes at a time when global warming sceptics are getting inordinate media coverage and high ranking officials help perpetuate the myth that climate change due to CO₂ emissions is a ‘theory’.

Nowhere is this scepticism more evident than in the Liberal government. PM Howard was recently quoted as saying that the "jury was out" when it came to the link between greenhouse emissions and climate change. He later claimed to have been misunderstood, but his lack of leadership on this issue is staggering. New Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull promises to be no better, labelling Labor climate change "fanatics", and continuing to play down its importance. To their credit, Rudd and Labor are directing many of their efforts toward bringing the Government’s ambivalence on environmental issues into the public eye.

If by chance you remain unconvinced, you should look no further for the facts than Al Gore’s feature film, an Inconvenient Truth. It summarises, in a few hours all of the key issues in the Global Warming debate. I won’t even try and do it justice here by giving details but a couple of points jumped out at me and are worth noting:

1)Australia are all too often mentioned as a rogue nation when it comes to the environment. Of the developed nations, only the US and Australia have failed to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. It’s bad for our international image, to say the least.

2)There is no myth of climate change. Some 928 peer reviewed journal articles support the idea that greenhouse emissions are heating the globe and raising sea levels. In contrast over 50% of media coverage suggested there was no definitive link. The media are misleading us, again – don’t be fooled.

3) Protecting the economy is no argument against changing our polluting ways. All the money in the world won’t buy us a new planet. Protecting industries like automobile makers is not only unsustainable but not working. US Auto firms are making record losses, and can’t sell their cars in China, because they don’t meet emission standards in that developing nation. It’s a baseless policy, which is helping neither the environment nor the economy.

Anyway, watch the movie for yourself, its compelling. It made me think that the world would be different, in more way than one if Gore had of won the presidency in 2000. It will leave you in no doubt that our earth is in serious trouble, and we have only a short time to reverse the trends. The Howard government has recently shown a penchant for policy change – corresponding to opinion poll change (all of a sudden they are outraged by David Hick’s imprisonment). So protest long and loudly – the era of the barefoot, tree-hugging greenie is over; and the era of mainstream environmental activism is upon us.