A Change of Tack

I’ve met enough Global Warming Deniers recently for me to realise that the Al Gore inspired climate change message isn’t getting through to everyone (for the record that continually re-surprises me). Despite the success of Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth (and the resulting rise in media coverage of the topic), just enough misinformation remains in the public space to lead some to believe that the issue remains undecided.

As I’ve asserted in past, the Jury came back long ago on this issue and the link between burning fossil fuels and increased global temperatures is as locked in as scientific inquiry can be. Unfortunately, in Australia (and in much of the Western World), the rigour of the scientific community is given less credence than the ‘investigation’ of Today Tonight or the ruminations of ‘Johnno’ from down the local pub. Hearsay and rumour all too easily trumps detailed analysis (i.e. “I heard those scientists were warning about global cooling 10 years ago and now they’re saying the opposite, you can’t trust them” – I swear someone said that to me recently with a straight face).

With that reality in mind, let me come at this from another direction. We have a limited, finite supply of fossil fuels. That’s a stone cold fact. The amount of coal, oil and gas currently underground is the amount we’ve always had and always will have. (I appreciate that slightly more becomes available with improved mining technology, but that doesn’t add to the overall amount on earth). Estimates of these reserves are shady at best – perpetuated as they are by energy companies with varying agendas – but suffice to say our supply will last some hundreds of years at most. A 2001 BP analysis estimated that we had about 50 years of oil, 75 years of gas and 200 years of coal at 2001 usage levels. With demand from India and China climbing exponentially, I think it’s fair to say that we’ll have mined and burned every last morsel (including the rest of the Amazon, everyone’s coffee tables and all those old newspapers) by 2200 – if things go exceptionally well from here (but probably sooner).

To my mind, that means that my hypothetical great-grandson may find himself sitting around in the dark on the floor (or maybe a plastic, non-flammable chair if he’s lucky) of his apartment wondering what we were all thinking. The lad makes a good point. Now seems the ideal time to fine tune alternative energy sources (all of them: wind, solar, nuclear, rodents on wheels) at a national and international level, and to get something sorted before we have to return to working by moonlight. It makes excellent financial and logical sense to get ahead of this demand now and to develop renewable energy technology now, rather than in 100 more years.

So, hopefully some of you Deniers like that argument a little better. It’s easier to digest. No more coal equals no more TV (and no more current affairs), no more refrigeration to keep those Extra Dry’s cold, and no more petrol to keep your SUV or people mover on the road. Whatever you’re preferred reason, it’s never been a better time to collectively wean ourselves off coal (clean or otherwise), oil and gas - and glance ahead to the future.

Back to Work

Well, since the memorable 100^th post a fortnight ago, it’s been all quiet on the posting front. At that time, John Howard was still Prime Minister – and still a member of parliament. I had spent the election campaign oscillating between hope for change and fear that the nightmare would continue. It seemed a logical (forgone) conclusion that Howard’s time would end, but the closer the election got, the more I was afraid that he’d slide across the line one more time.

On election night, I gathered a few close friends around the White Unit and tried to act natural while the votes started to tumble in. During the day I’d managed to find a couple of Liberal die-hards (who were climate change deniers to boot) while I was out and about – and their confidence further undermined my own. It was an unbelievable relief then, come 10pm or so, when the Libs conceded and Kevin ’07 became a reality. Champagne corks popped, high fives were exchanged and laps of honour were taken.

In the following days though, as the hangover wore off, and the afterglow faded, I couldn’t help but wonder what the day-to-day changes would actually be. 11 long years in the wilderness and finally, the time had come for Labor to put out. To his credit, Kevin has so far not disappointed me. Kyoto is ratified and we’re back in the climate change mix. The troops are still slated to come home from Iraq. Julia is in charge of education (a sign at least that it will be finally given its due) and Workchoices is dead in the water. Even Republicanism is being whispered about again. Clearly, there’s a whole lot of heavy lifting to be done, but so far, I like where we’re headed. For the record, I’m expecting more of Kevin than I did of Johnny – so he had better keep coming up with the goods.

The only sour notes from the election were predictable ones: Alex Hawke and Peter Costello. My nemesis, Mr. Hawke was named the new member for Mitchell (overwhelmingly) despite being right-er than a Hanson family reunion. It’s criminal that he should be the member for anywhere, but I’ll keep my eye on him, I assure you. We also got to see Mr. Costello’s true colours: he dropped his bundle and sulked away like a toddler with a scraped knee. He wanted to be handed to reins of the greatest Democracy in the world, but shied away from doing the hard yards that Opposition requires. We dodged a massive bullet by thwarting his run for the Lodge and for that I will always be thankful.