Though the starters gun for the 2008 American Presidential Election remains in its holster several of the candidates are already showing vulnerabilities at the blocks. The Republicans in particular are finding that while the field is wide, it lacks the quality that will facilitate a smooth transition of power from Bush to a GOP successor. Of the three leading hopefuls: John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney – all are struggling to find their niche, while other lesser known candidates (Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, Mike Huckabee et al.) are already rocketing towards obscurity.
A few months ago, McCain was a clear leader (Giuliani now leads narrowly). His experience as a senator, his strong military credentials and reputation for integrity all stood him in good stead with voters. Come troop surge time though, McCain criticised Bush for not suggesting enough troops – and he has quickly fallen out of step with public opinion. The war is very much out of fashion, and McCain is pushing to escalate it. This week, in an attempt to bolster conservative support, he has announced his opposition to Roe vs. Wade, the land mark pro-choice decision legalising abortion. He as vowed to overturn it, alienating him from democrat voters and moderates across the country.
Still, at least he has a position, which puts him ahead of Giuliani, who is trying to stake out dual views on abortion, gay marriage and gun control – pet conservative acid tests. He’s said he hates abortion, but believes in a woman’s right to choose; shared an apartment with a gay couple, but opposes their marriage and has legislated against gun ownership while talking up the second amendment. He’s not shying away from this perception: "You never agree with any one candidate 100%. I don't agree with myself 100%" – but he should know that electorates hate a flip-flopper, just ask John Kerry. Romney is having trouble reconciling his Mormon status with mainstream Americans and evangelical Republicans, but is trying by abandoning liberal attitudes he displayed while governor of Massachusetts.
The Democrats, for their part seem to be in a one horse race. Hillary leads by the length of the straight, and it seems that she is certain to get the party’s nomination. Considering the disarray within the Republican Party, you’d think she was as good as back in the White House. The US race is funny though – leading by a country mile is the worst place to be, especially this far from the finish. It makes you a big target. Aside from a reputation for being cold and calculating, Hillary is this week stamping out allegations of misusing campaign funds to by support from black leaders. With everyone watching every move she makes, it will no doubt be the first of many accusations. No one likes a tall poppy, and if I was Barack Obama, I’d be thinking that distant second is a fine place to be (especially considering John Edwards is next 'best').
The first Primary (which signals the start of the nomination process) is not until January 14, 2008 (in Iowa), but in the meantime all of the candidates need to chart a course away from the war, find a position that pleases their base without appearing to be extremist and above all show that they will be nothing like Bush. Seeing as though a single slip up in an interview or on the stump can derail an entire campaign, it promises to be a turbulent 11 months. My money for the moment is still firmly on Obama, but not quite the whole house yet.
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