The Tide of Opinion

There’s a clear difference between not reacting to opinion polls, and well, not reacting at all. It’s a difference that’s being exemplified at the moment by our government as they dig their heels in and insist on ‘staying the course’ – while the public turn away from them in droves.

Opinion polls are fundamentally flawed, and ultimately a load of crap. Randomly calling a few thousand people (or more usually a few hundred) can never adequately represent the true trends in public feeling. Converting a sample size of say 400 people to a percentage that you can punch up a news report with is misleading to say the least, and most of us are aware that the quoted numbers are meaningless. As the saying goes, 83% of all statistics are made up. Politicians in particular have become immune to these polls, and rightly so. If policy was redirected every time a few hundred people indicated a lack of popularity, our democracy would fall in on itself.

Still, this phenomenon is distinct from becoming so insular from poll numbers that you lose touch with the true feelings of the majority of your people. On two key issues, the Liberals are steadfastly clinging to their policy ship, even as it strikes a glacier and begins to sink: the war in Iraq and David Hicks.

The jury has long been back on Iraq. It was ill-conceived, has been mismanaged and recently the intelligence convincing us to fight was deemed ‘inappropriate’. At the same time there has been (and remains) a need not to abandon the country, seeing as though it’s in a far worse state than when we found it. Unfortunately, open discussion about our options is being hidden behind a blind commitment not to ‘cut and run’. Howard’s recent comments have shown that his views on the matter are painfully one-dimensional. Meanwhile, the people, not only in our country but across the world, are war weary and a growing majority want and end to be in sight. Most will accept that there is no quick or painless exit from Iraq, but by the same token our commitment cannot be open-ended. Howard’s decision to send additional Australian Troops and trainers, coupled with his refusal to discuss their homecoming – until we ‘win’– shows a glaring gap between our government and their citizens.

The Deputy PM isn’t helping. He went out of his way yesterday to remind us that David Hicks wasn’t an innocent backpacker accidentally captured while holidaying in Afghanistan – and implied that he deserved his current predicament. Few people are claiming that he is totally innocent, though it would be nice for Mr Costello to show some empathy. Hick was found with the Taliban, in Afghanistan at very much the wrong time, as far as the US was concerned. The obvious problem is that we don’t really know any of the truth behind Hicks’ case and that the only information we have is from the media. The one thing that is certain is that he has been denied almost every basic human right, and certainly all of his legal rights. He has been held without trial and without a shred of compassion. We expect better treatment for our citizens. Australians have grown tired of our Government ignoring his plight, and ignoring us as well.

Luckily, there is one set of numbers that will change the government policy in these areas: election results. Come time to vote, the Liberals are going to suffer from their stubborn refusal to adapt their policies to reflect the will of the people. Meanwhile, Kevin Rudd’s current popularity is tied to the perception that he is listening – something that he would do well to continue.