The Race Grinds On

Goddam Hillary. Like a punch drunk heavy-weight, she just doesn’t seem to know when to stay down. In the wash-up of yesterday’s voting in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island (America’s Tasmania – we’d both cut them free to drift away if we could), two things are clear: 1. Obama failed to land a knockout blow and 2. Hillary was unable to make much of a dent on the points deficit that has her definitively in 2^nd place. There are plenty of measures of who’s in front or behind, who has momentum and who is dead in the water – but it is delegate count that will be the ultimate determinant come August.

On offer in yesterday’s contest were some 370 delegates. According to Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe, “Hillary Clinton gained 187 delegates, and we gained 183. That's a net gain of 4 delegates”. Nice math Dave, thanks for spelling that out for me. While there is some give in these numbers, given that some are only ‘projected’ while counting continues, his point is salient: the Clintonista’s failed to eat away Obama’s pledged delegate lead. Plouffe, clearly the campaign mathlete, claims that Obama maintains a “lead of more than 150 [pledged] delegates, and there are only 611 pledged delegates left to win in the upcoming contests” (this discounts superdelegates for the time being – CNN has Obama’s total lead at 96). In short, yesterday’s ‘win’ for Hillary was important for momentum (that intangible campaign propellant) but did little to improve her actual position (Texas is a case in point, Hillary won the primary, but the delegates were divided 65-61 – while Obama currently leads the concurrent caucus in the same state).

So, where to from here? Next we’re off to Wyoming and Mississippi; relatively small states (in delegate terms), where Obama is expected to win comfortably. In fact, many are predicting that Hillary will head straight for the next big state, Pennsylvania, where 188 delegates are on offer. In other words, the race grinds on. The fighting within the Democratic Party continues – most recently about whether or not Michigan and Florida’s disqualified delegates should now be included (which would be blatant cheating) - while McCain is sitting pretty as the confirmed Republican nominee.

The Dem’s need to step back and take a breath. Another month or two of tearing each other apart will put both Obama and Hillary at a disadvantage come general election time. McCain is now free to attack both – while they’re concentrating on each other. Inconceivably, we run the risk of seeing another Republican in the White House next year, despite the best efforts of the current one to put that idea to bed. For me, the solution is simple. The mysterious superdelegates need to coalesce around Obama; he’s the voice of change, embodying our hope of better governance – and he’s the one that can beat McCain. In an experience-off, American’s will take the hard nosed Vietnam Vet over the former First Lady everyday of the week. For Dawkin’s sake, someone (I’m looking at you Howard Dean) throw in the towel for her before it’s too late.