Partitioning Iraq

The war in Iraq has recently turned 4 years old, having degenerated into an all out civil war. US Military casualties as at April 18^th stand at 3,312 dead and almost 25,000 wounded in action, to make little mention of the 600,000 Iraqis, the Lancet estimates to have died. The current ‘surge’ plan, which began in February (& required an additional 20,000 US troops) aimed to quell insurgent violence, particularly in Baghdad. By any objective analysis, it has had little effect. On the contrary, Iraqi’s are increasingly resentful of their occupiers (if it’s possible to increase your hatred above 100%), with five massive car bombs recently emphasising that point (and killing 198). The Democrat controlled congress is trying vainly to set a timetable to end the war – but their efforts are made in the shadow of Bush’s veto pen – and are not likely to be effective.

So, what’s next? Where are our Aussie Troops (handcuffed to the Coalition Corpse as they are) headed? Is Bush ready to unveil his much anticipated (and probably non-existent) Plan B? Reluctant as the Republicans are to change course, or to take third party advice (even from James Baker), it is most likely that we’ll only be getting more of the same in the near future. However, recent events on the ground in the capital may give us a clue that Bush has finally realised that desperate times call for desperate measures and is at least considering the benefits of partitioning Iraq.

At this stage, no US officials are publicly entertaining the now passé idea of splitting the country into three, but the US 82^nd Airborne Division has begun to experiment with the idea at a local level. A 5km long, 3.6m high wall is being built around the predominantly Sunni district of Adhamiya in Baghdad to protect it from surrounding Shia communities (and insurgents). The wall is reminiscent of the Israeli security barriers, separating it from the Gaza Strip and West Bank – and it serves the same purpose: keeping its people in and the bombers out. Criticism of the move has come thick and fast from the Iraqi PM and ministers (who call it a big prison), while the US have quickly backed away from the wall, claiming it is a temporary measure.

Media hype aside though, the US are running out of options (and ideas) and everything should be on the table. The situation has more parallels with Israel than the physical appearance of the wall. In the absence of a diplomatic path to peace, the remaining options are to fight a protracted guerrilla war – or to retreat to your stronghold. Israeli statistics indicate that their (west bank) barrier has drastically reduced the number of Palestinian infiltrations and suicide bombings on civilians in Israel and in Israeli settlements, though the increased safety has come at the cost of Palestinian freedoms. In short, building a security wall is an extreme measure that blurs some ethical boundaries – but it’s effective.

As the Iraq war progresses the US will be increasingly concerned with what works, and have a shown a clear history of disregarding ethical considerations in past decisions. When shown to be effective in Adhamiya, more and more communities could find themselves hemmed in behind the concrete – and ultimately the partitioning of Iraq could be back up for consideration. If it means stopping the violence and letting the troops come home, that may not be such a bad result.