My old mate Kevin Rudd has been taking a hammering lately in the press. Opinion polls show his popularity plummeting (replete with magazine covers depicting him skydiving without a parachute) clearly in favour of my favourite nemesis, Tony Abbott. There is talk of him stepping aside, to allow Julia a clear shot at saving Labor’s ass - and for the life of me, I can’t begin to figure out why. From where I’m sitting, Rudd has chipped away at reform here and there, and while disappointing on key issues (boat people, gay marriage, pussying out on the ETS etc) has made a reasonable fist of his first couple of years. He has the charisma of a discarded chip packet, but he’s intelligent, measured and reliable – all of which suit me just fine. In defence of Dear Leader, let me offer the following:
1. Polling is Bullshit
Snap polling of the kind snaffled up by the mainstream media is flat out crap, no question. Cold calling 1000 respondents, asking them leading questions and then over interpreting their responses is the definition of disingenuous. Extrapolation of this kind of data (+/- 10%) is an affront to logic – but fuck it makes for catchy headlines. Given that actual investigative reporting and thoughtful journalism are both long dead and buried, I understand that pages (of deathly ill) newspapers need filling. Unfortunately, the tail is more often wagging the dog these days – the media outlets take (or commission) the polls, report emphatically on the outcomes and then interview the pollies about their abrupt changes in fortune. Repeat. As news of the bad polling numbers soaks the next news cycle, prospects tend to get even worse… and so on. The only decent stats based political analysis is over at 538, but unfortunately Australia has no such equivalent.
2. The Mining Tax is a good idea
I’m constantly re-surprised that middle class voters can’t seem to get out of their own way. In the US, thousands protested to block health care and tax reform that would directly and substantially benefit them! Australian voters seem to be no different, allegedly opposing Rudd’s mining profits tax – despite the obvious fact that it is aimed at the enormous profits of mining companies. The realities of the tax seem simple. One of the main tenets of mining is that your mine needs to be somewhat close to resource you’re digging up. In contrast to manufacturing, the mining of Aussie uranium or coal cannot be outsourced to China. Given that business is booming, there are plenty of profits to share in – and my educated guess is that Rio and BHP are doing little re-investing in the WA towns that feed their monoliths. More likely, their fat CEO’s are smoking stogies and surveying their newly acquired islands from their shiny Lear Jets. Rudd, sneaky Socialist that he is, is right to go after a fair share of the loot.
3. Tony Abbott Couldn’t Lead a Conga Line
My position on Tony Abbott has been aired here frequently. Aside from his well documented offensive stances to women (young and old), gays, migrants, working Australians and the environment, I don’t even find him a particularly inspiring or even competent leader. Adding insult, he’s also a staunch Monarchist. My feedback from those seemingly predisposed to vote for him seems to be senselessly based on his ability to complete an Iron Man and accordingly how he looks with his shirt off. Fortunately, it’s not all smooth sailing for Abbott, as he tries to quell a revolt of his coalition Nationals and tries to spoil Rudd’s national broadband celebrations. I hope he chokes, and chokes hard.
Overall, the media have created a narrative in the last month or so, to try and add some interest to a contest that should by rights be a non-event. Kudos to them I guess – their power to perpetuate non-reality should keep you all awake at night. My great hope is that your average punter can somehow claw through all the crap and not fulfil this awful prophecy. My advice (eloquently put by comedian Lewis Black) – is that if you’re thinking that one of the candidates would be a really great guy to have round for beers, or to party with – vote for the other guy. Let Bush be a lesson to you all.
